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Iranians went to the polls once again on 19 April. This second round of elections, to the Fifth Majlis, is unlikely to make the likely future course of Iranian politics much clearer than the first round, held on 8 March. Interpretations of the results of the primaries have varied widely. Some hailed the demise of the radicals and the good showing of the pro-Rafsanjani faction while other observers warned that the conservatives were likely to wield increased power.

Saddam Hussein's regime is putting on a brave face but the noose is continuing to tighten. While Saddam has been celebrating the parliamentary election results, relations with Jordan have deteriorated further and Syria has increased its support for the opposition. Meanwhile, it is clear that neither Washington nor London will ease their stranglehold on Iraq while Saddam is in power.

It had to come. But did it have to come just when things were looking up? The London-based Saudi opposition group, the Committee for the Defence of Legitimate Rights (CDLR), had until now papered over its internal divisions. Unlike so many exiled Arab opposition groups it had managed to present a united face and give the impression of running a tight ship.

As the end of Ramadan Eid passed, the GCC states found themselves in a dangerously unstable situation. Bahrain is racked by violence and unrest that government repression appears unable to quash. Qatar's emir and his father are engaged in a bitter long-distance tussle for power which threatens to embroil outside powers. Most importantly, if opaquely, the senior Saudi princes are be locked into a power struggle. 

The tragic farce that is the soap opera of Saddam Hussein's family has once again made international headlines. Hussein Kamel Hasan al Majid's mistaken decision to trust in his former mentor's clemency was the gamble of a desperate man. More important than the elimination of yet more of Saddam's intimates, though, is the developing regional struggle for influence over Iraq. As the Iranian foreign minister arrived in Damascus there were signs of a revived Syrian-Iranian push to counter the Jordanian-American plan for Iraq.

President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen has not been able to push through his internal reform programme at any speed since the end of the 1994 civil war. His efforts have been derailed by external and internal problems which continue to loom large.

The Iraqi government's agreement to enter into talks with the UN on the terms of UN Security Council Resolution 986 sent shock waves through the oil market and prompted jubilation in Baghdad. Saddam's proposal to open talks, aired on 20 January, led to the initiation of discussions on 6 February and raised the prospect of Iraq being allowed to export up to $1 billion worth of oil every three months to fund humanitarian imports.

Only time will tell if the visit by Qatar's former ruler to the other Arab Gulf countries which began last December will help or hurt the GCC. There is no question, though, that the tour will have a lasting impact on the organisation. The GCC charter was originally signed in 1981 by King Khalid of Saudi Arabia, Sheikh Isa of Bahrain, Sultan Qabus of Oman, Sheikh Jaber of Kuwait, Sheikh Zayed of the UAE and Sheikh Khalifah of Qatar. Aside from King Khalid, who was replaced by Fahd on his death, it is only Khalifah who has involuntarily missed a summit. His recent tour of the GCC capitals was designed to ensure that he does not miss this year's summit gathering.

The decision of the British government to revoke the asylum of Dr Muhammad aI Masari, spokesman of the Committee for the Defence of Legitimate Rights (CDLR) and send him packing to Dominica was greeted with pleasure by Riyadh. Although the Saudi government made no formal comment on the British move, it represents a victory for the quiet campaign that the Kingdom has been waging with increasing intensity in recent months. The extraordinary decision by the British government to deport Masari to a third country, Dominica, sparked furious debate in London but represents merely the logical outcome of Whitehall's ever more frantic efforts to silence opponents of the GCC regimes.

The auguries for the 16th annual GCC Summit, held in Muscat from 4 to 6 December, were not good. King Fahd was hospitalised on the eve of the meeting, while the Kingdom was still coming to terms with the traumatic bombing of the US military liaison office in Riyadh. Bahrain's government was flexing its muscles in nervous anticipation of an escalation of domestic opposition activity. Saudi mediators had failed to make significant progress on intra-Gee border disputes such as the Bahrain-Qatar feud over the Hawar islands. And Qatar, Abu Dhabi and Oman were continuing to break ranks over the Saudi and Kuwaiti hard-line on Iraq.

Exercise Intrinsic Action is held every spring and autumn in Kuwait. Exercise number 96/1 began last month and, as usual, involved American and British forces who will work alongside their Kuwaiti counterparts. Britain has provided a mere battalion to this exercise but regards it as a good training opportunity, especially for its Cyprus-based troops.

The car bomb which exploded in the car park beside the building in Riyadh housing the US Corps of Engineers contingent in Saudi Arabia and near to the National Guard headquarters has sent its reverberations throughout the world. The Riyadh car-bomb, which killed four Americans and a Filipino and wounded some sixty people, many seriously, was not as horrendous in scale as various other terrorist outrages elsewhere in the world or as shattering in its impact as, say, the recent assassination of the Israeli Premier, Yitzhak Rabin. But for an incident of this kind to happen in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is as significant as it is shocking.

While still Crown Prince, Qatar's Sheikh Hamad Al Thani made it a central part of his foreign policy to cultivate good relations with this approach. The economic and strategic grounds for ensuring close ties are obvious- cooperation over development of the North Gas field is essential and a common desire to limit Saudi hegemony is evident, if unexpressed.

On 15 October the Arab world experienced the disheartening spectacle of another of its leaders gaining the spurious legitimisation of a "popular vote" as Saddam Hussein carried out the first ever referendum on his rule. Like other Arab strong-men such as Egypt's President Mubarak and Syria's President Assad, Saddam could confidently expect the ritual 99% - plus of the vote that has become the depressing norm in the Middle East.

There is no doubt who will win the referendum for the Iraqi Presidency, scheduled for mid- October. Indeed, it will be surprising if any Iraqi citizen dares to vote against Saddam Hussein, the sole candidate nominated by the Revolutionary Command Council and the National Assembly. The invitation to the international media to watch the election is as meaningless as the election itself.