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In GSN's most recent Risk Management Report, Iraq's D4 risk grade with negative momentum for the economic and financial outlook  remains unchanged as politicians in Baghdad continue to argue over the formation of a new government. Political violence and the influence of Iran-backed militias remains a problem. The heavily oil-dependent economy performed better in 2021 thanks to increased global prices.

Iran has not changed its D5 risk grade with negative momentum for political risk in its latest GSN Risk Management Report. Talks to revive the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal between Iran and world powers continued behind closed doors in early 2022, with Tehran insisting that all sanctions are removed. President Ebrahim Raisi increased spending plans in his first budget based on expectations of economic growth. Further talks with Saudi Arabia are expected.

Iraqi Kurdistan’s GSN Risk Management Report grade of D4 with a negative outlook for economic and financial risk remains unchanged. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) continue to negotiate over a possible joint candidate for the federal presidency, held since October 2018 by PUK nominee Barham Salih. Not date has been set for the fifth Kurdistan Parliament election, but preparations have begun for a poll in 2022.  The Kurdistan Regional Government earned net revenues of $1.7bn in 2021 from crude exports via the Ceyhan terminal in Turkey but some receipts are stuck in Lebanese banks due to currency restrictions. Local economic, security and political conditions have resulted in large outward waves of migration towards Europe.

GSN maintains Qatar’s B1 risk grade with a positive momentum for political risk in its most recent Risk Management Report. It still has many critics, but Qatar is finalising plans for the Fifa World Cup. The Arab Cup, won by Algeria in December, provided a successful test run of facilities. An expensive PR machine will argue that the Al-Thani-dominated emirate has considerably improved workers’ rights and created a more inclusive political system. Qatar’s global standing benefited from its central role in the Afghanistan drama

Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani in mid-January issued a decision appointing Sheikh Abdullah Bin Thamer Bin Mohammed Al-Thani as ambassador to Morocco.

Bahrain and the UAE are facing uncomfortable attention following the extradition of Bahraini national Ahmed Jaafar Mohamed Ali from Serbia on 24 January, which happened despite a European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) ruling that it should not go ahead. Ali appears to have been flown from Belgrade Nikola Tesla Airport on board a Bombardier Global 5000 business jet – tail number A6-RJC – owned by Abu Dhabi-based Royal Jet.

Heritage Oil, the Jersey-based oil and gas producer owned by Qatar’s former prime minister and foreign minister Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Al-Thani (HBJ), has been ordered by the High Court in London to repay the majority of a $6.5m claim by its founder and former chief executive Anthony Buckingham.

Sheikh Hamad Jaber Al-Ali Al-Sabah tested positive for Covid-19, according to a 27 January Ministry of Defence (MoD) statement. The defence minister is now isolating at home in line with official guidelines but was said to be continuing to undertake official duties remotely.

Dubai Electricity & Water Authority said on 3 February that it will convert its planned 2.4GW Hassyan coal-fired power plant to use natural gas instead.

Following the failed January attacks on Abu Dhabi launched by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, the Ministry of Defence has released videos showing its forces counterattacking the launch sites allegedly used by the Houthis. This response highlights the fact that the UAE has greater intelligence capabilities than, for example, neighbouring Saudi Arabia, which has suffered many more strikes from Yemen over the years

The Saudi sovereign wealth fund’s first credit ratings, issued in early February, provided further information on the size of the Public Investment Fund’s portfolio, which was boosted a few days later when the government gifted it $80bn of shares in Saudi Aramco.

Abu Dhabi Crown Prince and UAE Armed Forces deputy supreme commander Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (MBZ) hosted Sudan Sovereignty Council deputy chairman General Mohammed Hamdan Daglo (known as Hemedti) on 8 February, for talks that were likely to have focused on Khartoum’s urgent need for financial assistance, but which analysts said might also have involved the former Janjaweed commander seeking support as a potential new phase in Sudanese internal political struggles unfolds.

Dubai Ruler Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum has set up a judicial committee to settle a dispute among the heirs of Majid Al-Futtaim, the retailer who died in December after building up one of the country’s largest private companies.

GSN Risk Grade: C↑3↓ Recent developments Golden visas: Bahrain has followed the UAE and (more recent) Saudi lead by easing its visa rules to entice more investors and skilled immigrants. A new ‘golden residency visa’ programme was announced by the cabinet on 7 February.

Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Dubai Ruler Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum (MBR) has inaugurated the Museum of the Future – some seven years after the project was announced.