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The Royal Court’s 21 June announcement that Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdelaziz Al-Saud (MBS) was promoted from deputy to crown prince will spur a fresh round of palace intrigue and could yet test whether there is sufficient consensus within the family about MBS’s rise to pole position. In London and other capitals that have long appreciated former crown prince Mohammed Bin Nayef (MBN) – including the intelligence and foreign affairs communities in Washington DC – regional specialists and security services will miss the reassurance of working with a seasoned professional.

King Salman’s son Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) has been propelled into the limelight by his father’s accession to the throne. He has been gaining in power and influence for some time, but until now has had no formal government role; suddenly, he finds himself minister of defence, chief of the Royal Court, special adviser to the king, president of the newly formed Council of Economic and Development Affairs and a member of the parallel Council of Political and Security Affairs. It is a dramatic rise for a man thought to be in his early to mid-30s.

Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdelaziz Al-Saud has been appointed head of the court of his father, Crown Prince Salman, and his personal adviser with ministerial rank. Prince Mohammed technically fills the position vacated when Prince Saud Bin Nayef Bin Abdelaziz was appointed Eastern Province governor in January (GSN 939/1), though he has been acting as supervisor of the crown prince’s office for some time and regularly travels with him.

Energy and foreign affairs reshuffles: Several rounds of government reorganisation started in late August, as Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) has sought to inject more life into his economic reform programme and prepare for Saudi Aramco’s initial public offering (IPO). A big loser was Khalid Al-Falih, who was replaced as Aramco chairman by Public Investment Fund head Yasir Al-Rumayyan. Falih also lost control of the industry and mineral resources ministerial portfolios and on 8 September was replaced as energy minister by Prince Abdelaziz Bin Salman.

Energy minister Prince Abdelaziz Bin Salman announced wide-ranging changes on 16 November designed to bolster state utility Saudi Electricity Company (SEC), improve the transmission network’s reliability and encourage more renewable energy production. Prince Abdelaziz, who is also chairman of the Ministerial Committee for Restructuring the Electricity Sector and of the Electricity and Cogeneration Regulatory Authority (ECRA), said SEC’s net government liabilities – estimated at SR168bn ($45bn) – would be converted into shareholder equity via a sharia-compliant instrument. In addition, fees paid by SEC to the government would be cancelled.

A showcase mega-event has its downsides, even while the climate  talks place the UAE at the centre of the global stage.

It says something when even confirming the date of birth – 31 August 1985 – is seen as a breakthrough in getting a more exact image of arguably the Gulf region’s most talked-about – and influential – political personality. Deputy Crown Prince, secretary-general of the Royal Court, second deputy prime minister and defence minister Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdelaziz (MBS) is pushing Saudi Arabia towards a liberal economic overhaul and, by many accounts, driving bloody conflict in Yemen. But despite one extensive interview and his prominence in global newsflow and analysis, King Salman’s much-favoured 30 year-old son remains remarkably little known – while generating very mixed sentiments for a policy mix couched in management-speak and missiles.

A charismatic leader, as underlined by his generally well-regarded decades of driving Riyadh’s development, King Salman Bin Abdelaziz has been largely overshadowed by his heir-apparent over the two years. But the 82-year-old monarch has not gone away and he now appears willing to flex his political muscles once again, which might keep the ambitious Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) in check to some extent.

Deputy defence minister Prince Khalid Bin Salman Bin Abdelaziz made a return visit to Washington DC in late August, some six months after he left his post as ambassador to the United States against a backdrop of outrage over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Prince Khalid arrived on 27 August and met with secretary of state Mike Pompeo the next day and with defence secretary Mark Esper on 29 August. The visit was another sign the Trump administration would prefer to consign the Khashoggi case to the past.

Recent gloomy reports on a downturn in Saudi economic growth were underpinned by the announcement that Riyadh was extending its 1m b/d production cut until end-2023. However, the higher prices are not enough to make up for the fall in output. 

A long-running investigation into millions of dollars’ worth of bribes paid to Prince Miteb Bin Abdullah and his associates in 2007-10 has ended with the two defendants walking free from a London court, after successfully arguing the payments had been approved by the British and Saudi authorities. One defendant’s lawyer told the court his client was being prosecuted to deflect attention from the UK government’s decades of dubious payments in the Gulf

Vice President, prime minister and Dubai Ruler Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum removed Abdulla Al-Habbai as chairman of the Dubai Holdings conglomerate on 7 November. He appointed Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed Al-Maktoum in his place to temporarily oversee both Dubai Holding and its real estate subsidiary Meraas. The announcement was not accompanied by a clear explanation for the sudden change, but said it was “part of a fresh strategy” for both groups. GSN noted last month that Meeras and other state-owned property groups were facing difficulties.

Saudi Arabia has threatened to exert financial pressure on the Iraqi government to find a solution to end the war with Iran, according to a well placed source in Baghdad. The Saudi intention is said to have been made late last year, when funds to Iraq to maintain both its war effort and its huge development programme, were running at an estimated $20bn from Arab Gulf states. The source, involved in both military and civilian projects for the Iraqi government, says that the severity of Iraq's cash flow problem has begun to force major civilian projects to be postponed. It is estimated that 40% of new civilian construction has been postponed, indicating that Iraq is no longer receiving all the financial support it needs.

Casualties. It is not a phoney war being fought between Iran and Iraq. Though the pressmen and television crews which once thronged the lobbies of the Mansour Melia hotel in Baghdad and fought off cockroaches in the Shatt al Arab hotel in Basra have long since departed the conflict still continues.

IN A REPORT published earlier this month; Amnesty International claims that Iraqi use of torture is widespread. It bases its findings on interviews with former detainees and witnesses, and concludes that the use of torture on political prisoners has led to death under interrogation in a number of instances. The London-based human rights organisation only deals specifically with torture in this report, but on a number of occasions in the past has drawn attention to what it claims is a major increase in recent years of executions.