THE OMINOUS SIGNPOST

THE IRANIAN THREAT to prevent all Arab oil exports from the Gulf, if Iran's own oil exports are disrupted by Iraqi military action, is an ominous signpost to a possible spread of the Gulf war. The threat is directed more to the other Gulf Arab countries than to Iraq, since the seaborne route is already closed to the latter. The threat may be designed to so alarm the six countries of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) that they will pressurise Iraq not to carry out its threat to attack Iranian oil installations.