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Risk Grade – A1 Economic growth: The federal economy grew by 3.8% to AED1.49trn ($406bn) in 2021 – which was well ahead of the 2.5% predicted by local bank Emirates NBD.

A series of missile and drone attacks on the UAE killed two people but unnerved many more local residents in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, as well as international allies. The strikes carried a clear political message, coming as the South Korean and Israeli presidents were visiting Mohammed Bin Zayed in Abu Dhabi. The UAE has been quick to react by bombing Houthi missile launch sites in Yemen, but it is clear that Abu Dhabi’s efforts to distance itself from the conflict over the past three years have not succeeded.

A summit of regional leaders, held in Abu Dhabi on 18 January, appeared to be hastily arranged and did not include representatives from Saudi Arabia or Kuwait. It has nevertheless prompted widespread speculation about what may have been discussed and the meeting’s wider meaning. Such interest reflects its host’s apparently ever increasing prominence in international affairs.

Anti-corruption drive: Corruption remains a critical problem, which Prime Minister Mohammed Al-Sudani’s government will be judged on. Sudani said on 11 December the government had recovered another ID134bn ($92m) stolen from the General Commission of Taxes, in a case known as the ‘Theft of the Century’. It took the total recovered to ID317bn, out of some ID3.7tn reported stolen.

The population of Oman has broken through the 5m barrier, as the National Centre for Statistics and Information reported in March that the population had reached 5,000,772, made up of 2,881,313 Omanis and 2,119,459 resident expatriates.

Government of Iraq in Baghdad and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Erbil reached a new agreement on control of Kurdish oil exports on 1 April, days after the crude pipeline to Turkey was shuttered in response to an International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) arbitration ruling. However, many questions remain over both sides’ longer-term approach, as well as the attitude of Turkey and international oil companies to the new arrangements.

The Saudi authorities have launched a new anti-drugs campaign, amid continued concern about the use of narcotics, in particular fenethylline hydrochloride, an amphetamine better known by the brand name Captagon, which is being smuggled in large quantities into Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries.

A fresh outbreak of violence in Sudan between the country’s two military strongmen, General Burhan and Hemedti, has shown the limits of UAE and Saudi influence, despite years of close involvement by the Gulf powers.

Crown Prince Sheikh Mishaal Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah formally dissolved the National Assembly (parliament) via decree on 1 May, setting in motion the move towards another general election.

The High Court in London has issued a summary judgement against Prince Fahd Bin Sultan Bin Abdelaziz in his dispute with Credit Suisse over a loan for his yacht Sarafsa. Mr Justice Bright ruled in favour of the Swiss bank on 31 March and set out his reasoning in a full statement on 5 April, saying the prince had no real prospect of succeeding in defending his position if the case went to trial.

The Bahraini government has rowed back on changes to its school curriculum involving Jews and Israel, after criticism from local preachers, Shura Council members and others. While heavily promoted by the government, Bahrain’s normalisation deal with Israel remains deeply controversial among the population. 

Qatar will hold elections for the Central Municipal Council (CMC) on 22 June. The first election for the council was held in March 1999 and polls have been held every four years since then.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan secured a third term as Turkey's president in late May, despite significant weaknesses in the domestic economy and a stronger than usual opposition challenge. Gulf leaders quickly called to congratulate Erdoğan and the UAE president was one of the first to do so in person – a sign that, even if they are increasingly reluctant to write blank cheques, they are still keen to do business with a country with significant economic and military potential.

Ras Al-Khaimah (RAK) Ruler Sheikh Saud Bin Saqr Al-Qasimi made an unusual visit to Oman on 13 June for talks with Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq Al-Said at Al-Baraka Palace in Muscat. While Sheikh Saud occasionally represents the UAE at regional summits, he rarely makes official overseas trips on his own behalf.

Iran has been flexing its muscles in oil and gas disputes with its Arab neighbours, in what could be an attempt to ensure the recent trend towards rapprochement with regional and international powers happens on its terms. But factional disputes within the Iranian elite may also be playing a role, as rivals in Tehran try to ensure their vested interests aren’t damaged.