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In the presidential election scheduled for 18 June, Rahbar (Supreme Leader) Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is likely to favour a candidate who boasts a strong religious/security background, potentially with Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) credentials. The level of opposition facing his preferred successor to Hassan Rouhani may be limited – while Khamenei’s military and clerical allies gain ground, it is likely no substantial moderate/reformist candidates will survive the Shura-ye Negahban (Guardian Council)’s pre-election vetting and liberal voters are increasingly disengaged from the process.
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