Risk management report: Iraq

ISLAMIC STATE: The main news story of 2014 – not just for Iraq, but for the region – was the rapid advance of extremist Sunnis from the IS militant group, who, with the help of various local Sunni groups and former Baathists, moved beyond their strongholds in Al-Anbar and took Mosul and large parts of northern Iraq in June, and declared a caliphate across the territories they hold in Syria and Iraq. The US launched an air campaign (Operation Inherent Resolve) against IS targets in August, and has since been joined by a number of other nations, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Jordan, though Abadi has said Baghdad does not want any foreign land intervention. Months of airstrikes and army, Peshmerga and Shiite militia efforts have contained IS and prevented the group reaching the capital, but the jihadists retain considerable territory in Al-Anbar and Salahaddin. On 1 March, Iraq’s armed forces (who melted away in the face of IS’ rapid advance), boosted by Shiite militia, began a major offensive north of Baghdad, hoping to retake the town of Tikrit and the surrounding province of Salahaddin. According to Reuters, a US official said in February that an operation to retake Mosul could start as early as April, but others suggest it is more likely to wait until the autumn.